Dolphins & Tua Reach Agreement on $212 Million Deal

Kouya Shimizu

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31 July, 2024

One of the many QB dominoes of the offseason fell this week, as the Dolphins reached an agreement with Tua Tagovailoa on a four-year deal worth $212 million. Tua cashed in big with his deal, following in line with the market set by fellow QBs Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence with an AAV of $53 million. Questions have circled around Tua’s contract negotiations over the past couple of months, as many have wondered if he would demand top-of-the-market value. Sure enough, that’s what he got, but now a new question arises: is this the correct move for Miami?

Causes for Concern

Injury history
Inconsistencies against top-end competition
Limited ceiling

Right off the bat, the number one thing that comes to mind when discussing potential holes in this deal is the injury concerns. Tua has had four different surgeries/procedures on his hand, ankle, and most notably his hip, all before the age of 25. One of the more recent incidents, from just two years ago, involved two scary concussion accidents that sent shockwaves throughout the NFL due to how Miami handled the situation. Handing out $212 million to a QB with an extensive injury history is a hard gamble, especially when your best player, WR Tyreek Hill, is aging and creating a stronghold on your championship window.

This segues into my next concern: the lack of success against contending opponents. In his career, Tagovailoa has a record of 7-14 against teams with a winning record. It would be one thing if his play didn’t correlate with the record, but with a near 1-1 TD/INT ratio, with 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, the numbers show that his poor play reflects on the outcome. Top-end QBs have shown they can make it work; the likes of Burrow, Love, Mahomes, Lawrence, Allen, and Rodgers are capable of elevating their game against the best of the best, albeit some more than others. Still, these QBs have risen to the occasion in the playoffs, maybe not to win a Super Bowl, but they were at least able to secure victories against the league's best. Tua has failed to prove he can do this consistently despite the high-octane offense he leads throughout the regular season.

Collectively, a contract of this magnitude leaves a sour taste in my mouth. As much as I think Tua is a great personality and a good player in his own right, $212 million is a real commitment and not one that can be easily backed out of. Miami is placing all their chips on #1, and I can’t help but question how this will play out for the organization. Time will tell what happens over the next four years, and for the Dolphins' sake, I hope Tua returns on their investment.